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Publications

Articles, papers, and scientific outcomes produced by NPCA.

2023

Classification of plantations from RPA images using deep learning

In this study, we explored the application of Deep Learning techniques for the classification of coconut plantations from images collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA). A Convolutional Neural Network was used to create a model that classifies images into two categories: coconut and non-coconut. The model achieved an accuracy of 88%, concluding that Deep Learning techniques are viable tools for the identification of plants in large areas, with the potential to improve the management of agricultural crops.

Luiz Henrique Dias Ramos, Maria Eliana da Silva Holanda, João Pedro dos Santos Verçosa, Gustavo Antonio Ruffeil Alves, Arthur Costa Falcão Tavares, Fabricio Almeida Araujo, Gilberto Nerino de Souza Junior, Marcus de Barros Braga

REVISTA OBSERVATORIO DE LA ECONOMIA LATINOAMERICANA Curitiba, v.21, n.12, p. 25917-25937. 2023.

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2023

Deep learning framework for epidemiological forecasting: A study on COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Amazon state of Pará, Brazil

Modeling time series has been a particularly challenging aspect due to the need for constant adjustments in a rapidly changing environment, data uncertainty, dependencies between variables, volatile fluctuations, and the need to identify ideal hyperparameters. The present study presents a Framework capable of making projections from time series related to cases and deaths by COVID-19 in the Amazonian state of Para´, in Brazil. For the first time, deep learning models such as TCN, TRANSFORMER, TFT, N-BEATS, and N-HiTS were assessed for this purpose. The ARIMA statistical model was also used in post-processing for residual adjustment and short-term smoothing of the generated forecasts. The Framework generates probabilistic forecasts, with multivariate support, considering the following variables: daily cases per day of the first symptom, cases published daily, the occurrence of deaths, deaths published daily, and percentage of daily vaccination. The generated predictions are statistically evaluated by determining the best model for 7-day moving average projections using evaluating metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MAPE, sMAPE, r 2 , Coefficient of Variation, and residual analysis. As a result, the generated projections showed an average error of 5.4% for Cases Publication, 8.0% for Cases Symptoms, 11.12% for Deaths Publication, and 4.6% for Deaths Occurrence, with the N-HiTS and N-BEATS models obtaining better results. In general terms, the use of deep learning models to predict cases and deaths from COVID-19 has proven to be a valuable practice for analyzing the spread of the virus, which allows health managers to better understand and respond to this kind of pandemic outbreak.

Gilberto Nerino de Souza Junior, Alícia Graziella Balbino Mendes, Joaquim dos Santos Costa, Mikeias dos Santos Oliveira, Paulo Victor Cunha Lima, Vitor Nunes de Moraes, David Costa Correia Silva, Jonas Elias Castro da Rocha, Marcel do Nascimento Botelho, Fabricio Almeida Araujo, Rafael da Silva Fernandes, Daniel Leal Souza, Marcus de Barros Braga

PLoS ONE 18(11): e0291138.

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2023

Projections of livestock production and pasture coverage area using ARIMA modeling with a hierarchical approach for the state of Pará and its regions.

Livestock in the territory of Pará offers planning challenges for both the state and the private sector, with consequences of herd expansion impacting economic and socio-environmental variables. This article presents a study on livestock projections in terms of production and pasture coverage area using ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling through the hierarchical approach. A short-term time series data analysis framework was developed, covering data referring to the state of Pará between the years 1985 to 2021, with projections until 2026. The results indicate an increase of 19% in the number of cattle and 1.5% in pasture areas in the state of Pará, revealing an increase in productivity in the Marabá region, as well as stabilization in the Redenção region.

Mikeias S. Oliveira, Rafael S. Fernandes, Marcio R. S. Melo, Daniel L. Souza, David C. C. Silva, Gilberto Nerino de Souza Junior, Marcus de Barros Braga

2023: ANAIS DO XIV WORKSHOP DE COMPUTAÇÃO APLICADA À GESTÃO DO MEIO AMBIENTE E RECURSOS NATURAIS

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2022

Early detection of weed in sugarcane using convolutional neural network

Weed infestation is an essential factor in sugarcane productivity loss. The use of remote sensing data in conjunction with Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, can lead the cultivation of sugarcane to a new level in terms of weed control. For this purpose, an algorithm based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) was developed to detect, quantify, and map weeds in sugarcane areas located in the state of Alagoas, Brazil. Images of the PlanetScope satellite were subdivided, separated, trained in different scenarios, classified and georeferenced, producing a map with weed information included. Scenario one of the CNN training and test presented overall accuracy (0,983), and it was used to produce the final mapping of forest areas, sugarcane, and weed infestation. The quantitative analysis of the area (ha) infested by weed indicated a high probability of a negative impact on sugarcane productivity. It is recommended that the adequacy of CNN’s algorithm for Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) images be carried out, aiming at the differentiation between weed species, as well as its application in the detection in areas with different culture crops.

João Pedro do Santos Verçosa, Flávio Henrique dos Santos Silva, Fabricio Almeida Araujo, Regla Toujaguez la Rosa Massahud, Francisco Rafael da Silva Pereira, Henrique Ravi Rocha de Carvalho Almeida, Marcus de Barros Braga, Arthur Costa Falcão Tavares

International Journal for Innovation Education and Research. Vol. 10. N. 11 (2022). pg. 210.

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