Projections of livestock production and pasture coverage area using ARIMA modeling with a hierarchical approach for the state of Pará and its regions.

Livestock in the territory of Pará offers planning challenges for both the state and the private sector, with consequences of herd expansion impacting economic and socio-environmental variables. This article presents a study on livestock projections in terms of production and pasture coverage area using ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling through the hierarchical approach. A short-term time series data analysis framework was developed, covering data referring to the state of Pará between the years 1985 to 2021, with projections until 2026. The results indicate an increase of 19% in the number of cattle and 1.5% in pasture areas in the state of Pará, revealing an increase in productivity in the Marabá region, as well as stabilization in the Redenção region.